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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Final Post Prior to Iowa Caucuses

I want to make this brief. So here are the points:

Ron Paul will eventually need to do the speech on racial equality. The establishment, left and right, does not fear a libertarian insurgency in either the primaries or the general election. What they are afraid of is progressives coming on board in coalition with Ron Paul. That's why these attacks around charges of racism and homophobia are just getting started and will get much worse unless Paul addresses them in a major speech. If he did it now, he would win Iowa by more than 10 percentage points and come in second in NH by less than 5. As it stands now, he might lose Iowa. I have been saying for some time now that he will win Iowa. Some cable talking head will claim they predicted it first and maybe they will have antedated mine but I was the first to call it a no-brainer. If he loses Iowa, let me also be the first to say that his staff has no brains.

Libertarians, stop looking for an unconditional victory; it ain't happening. Progressives, the same goes for us. Separately, the best that either of us could claim is about 35 % of the voting public. 25% each is probably more realistic. Neither a consistent progressive nor a consistent libertarian campaign wins by itself at this point in our nation's history. That does not mean that progressives and libertarians together cannot find the requisite common ground to get above 50% of the vote. Go back and read two posts "The Choice for Libertarians" and "What is the Green Republican Strategy?"

Libertarians, you will not get smaller government and simpler and lower taxes without coalition with progressives. Progressives, you will not get funding to build the peaceful green economy unless you first agree to make deep cuts in federal spending on warfare, drug wars and corporate welfare. There are many ways to bridge the gap. There is one sure fire way to not get anything done: refuse to build a real coalition.

Iowa progressives, you can make history. Do not be swayed by the propagandists of fear. If you are more than the margin of victory, Ron Paul will notice. That's when the real revolution begins. It will take a coup along the way and unfortunately we progressives cannot do it alone; if that is not clear after 4 years of the present administration, nothing is clear.

Iowa Ron Paul libertarians, call your progressive friends. Tell them you need their help and they have a real place at the table when they do.

Finally, here is the eventual covenant.: A substantial net reduction in the size and budget of the federal government with savings from cuts coming largely from drawing down the military industrial catastrophe's empire building and maintenance. These reductions go half to debt reduction and half to block grants to the states, according only to their populations, to be used as they each wish. This means approximately $3 trillion  gets moved out of the federal government over 4 years time. Additionally, with some out of the box thinking on tax reform, a deal can be struck that adds another trillion in revenue. This would mean that federal debt is reduced by 2 trillion and 2 trillion goes back into the economy through the states. My guess is that movement of this much money stimulates the economy enough to add another trillion in revenue.

Progressives, ask yourselves, "Will Obama provide progressive tax reform and 2.5 trillion in stimulus  the second go round?" Libertarians, ask yourselves, "Will Mitt Romney reduce taxes below the Bush rates for 99% of the population while cutting 2.5 trillion from federal spending his first go round?" If you both answer no, then you have to choose: get stuck with what you know is coming or change dance partners for 4 years and get a lot more than you'll ever get by dancing alone.

That was not short enough. See you January 4.


  1. Check this out from http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-maintains-his-lead.html#more:

    Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.

  2. Wow. Awesome strategy. Hope it goes all the way.

  3. Thanks Moshcustom. Feel free to spread the strategy wherever you like. Happy new year.

  4. I'm working on writing a piece saying essentially the same thing, how there's going to be a "great compromise" that could end up being a social revolution. When progressives and other democratic factions become turned on to Ron Paul, they are actively promoting their distrust/disapproval of the absurd left right political paradigm in our country. The establishment wants to keep the populous divided. That's the best way to prevent any real social movement of any kind. THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS that if anti war voters made a pact with fiscal conservatives, we could get Ron in the white house and literally change the world. The powers that be realize that they've been slow to react, and now they're caught in a real tough spot. They don't have enough time to subliminate a public ron paul disapproval with the media noise machine. Corporate media is trying to make up for lost time and when they try and cram two or three months worth of noise machine propaganda into a few weeks, even ordinary citizens begin to realize what they're doing. When the majority realizes that democrats and republican noise machines alike are using the media to marginalize Paul at all cost, then the machine we be exposed and it won't work as well in the future

  5. My short essay on the absurdities of the left right paradigm can be found on my new blog