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Monday, December 12, 2011

Grinch Might Steal the Ninth Day of Christmas

Newt Gingrich has several things going for him that have enabled him to take a huge lead. His is the story of repentance and coming from behind. Americans love a repentant sinner and an underdog. He has played this up and its paying off.

He is also full of big ideas, many incoherent and some down right nutty, but he is addressing the American people's sense that something big needs to happen. Newt's big ego is being sublimated as into big change ideas. Contrast that with the failed consensus building strategy of the current administration. We Americans don't always know where we need to go, but we know we need to go somewhere. Standing stagnant in a stalemate will get us nowhere. Lingering at the lowest common denominator yields legislation that leaves our economy limping.

Newt appears to be a proven commodity. He takes credit for getting big things done, and Republican voters want to believe that he was responsible for the 90s boom. On the other hand, his sins are already out there. He's an old man with a wife who knows how to keep him from making a total fool of himself. He is channeling Reagan well.

He is not Mitt, and Republicans are weary of the rehearsal. I still think Santorum could come out of the back of the pack if Newt stumbles. Unfortunately Republicans are not in the mood for a sane candidate like Jon Huntsman.

That leaves Ron Paul. His campaign has been diligently trying to reach traditional Republicans in Iowa. The strategy may pay off but one has to see that Newt is picking up steam. I am still predicting a Ron Paul victory in Iowa but the polls are saying something different. Paul needs a boost to get him across the finish line of this important preliminary heat in first place.

Shifting to Blue and Green Republican strategies is a must, and it is far better to do it now than wait for a possible second place set back in the Iowa caucus. Even if he finishes first and Newt or Mitt place a close second and third in Iowa, Ron Paul does not get all the attention. Can you see the headline: "Romney and Gringrich in Three Way Tie with Paul"? Moving towards coalition in the official campaign is essential. Hate to repeat myself but.. the sooner the better....

Progressives need to think about this if they get an invitation to join the Republican caucus: What if Newt pulls off a huge victory in Iowa and gets within a few points of Romney in NH? Do you really want to risk Newt winning the nomination and possibly the election. Another good reason to jump ship now. I am not an Iowa resident but I am extending the invitation right now.

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