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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Ron Paul's End Game

NOTE: Go here first... http://progressivesforronpaul.blogspot.com/2012/04/ron-paul-bait-for-long-term-strategy.html
The following post has become very controversial because many are misunderstanding. The purpose of this post was to demonstrate that the most optimistic view of the delegate strategy yields unacceptable results.

The day is closing across the USA. A few primaries and caucuses are yet to be determined or too close to call. We will not know until very early in the morning here on the east coast whether Paul manages finally to win a state as the Alaskan caucuses are just getting started. 

So far Ron Paul has finished third or fourth in every state except Virginia, North Dakota, and maybe Vermont. In Virginia he has finished a disappointing and distant second. Regardless of what consolation Alaska offers, Virginia was the last opportunity for Ron Paul to turn the tide. He was the only candidate on the ballot and write-ins for Santorum, Gingrich and others were not allowed. 

The other two anti-Romney candidates had their supporters voting for Paul which accounts for his highest finish to date with 41% of the vote. Probably 15 to 20 percentage points came from Santorum and Gingrich supporters. Another 10 to 15 percentage points came from crossover Democrats and independents. Had Democrats turned out for Paul in Virginia as they apparently did for Santorum in Ohio, Paul would have defeated Romney.

Of course Democrats turned out for Santorum in Ohio because of Operation Hilarity. As I mentioned in my two previous posts, I suspect this crossover voting to be design to preempt Democrats from turning toward Ron Paul. As with most conspiracy theories I have much subjectively invested in it. It may be that Moulitsas, Moore, et al are innocent of malicious intent except to cause mischief. The timing of their mischief is opportune and effective. 

Perhaps there is an intuitive means of testing my theory. Imagine if Ron Paul were in the position occupied by Santorum prior to the Michigan primary. Would the megaphonic  propagandists of the left have been as happy to use Paul for their destructive intentions? Answer that question honestly as you evaluate my conspiracy theory.

Regardless of the left's motivations, Ron Paul and his campaign bear as much, if not more, responsibility for this missed opportunity. No significant investment in Virginia? No attempts to reach out with robo calls to Democrats? Clearly, something is amiss in the Ron Paul campaign.

His diehard stalwarts are of course going to remind me that the delegate strategy is working. What exactly does that mean? What is the best case scenario this strategy produces? A majority of delegates and the nomination even though Paul finishes 3rd in the vote total? I do not think Paul has morons on his staff. There must be some other goal.

Perhaps the goal is to gain a plurality of delegates and in a brokered convention make the case that Paul played by the rules to win delegates and delegates are what counts, not votes. To deny him the nomination on the grounds that he did not gain a plurality of votes is to betray the rules established by the party and to send a message to America that Republicans cannot be trusted to play by the rules.

I doubt that strategy holds up when Santorum and Gingrich are asked whether their delegates should go to first place Paul or second place Romney, especially since Romney does want to be president, so much so that he'll give Gingrich a cabinet post and Santorum the VP spot in exchange for the nomination. Paul could be offered a consolation prize as well, say, Secretary of Labor and if he refused, be left to see what he could do as an independent in the general election.

Perhaps Paul views this campaign as an educational tour culminating in a prime time speech at the convention. I doubt that Ron Paul has set his aim so low. 

Perhaps, as is speculated much in the MSM, Paul has made a deal to get his son a  cabinet post or VP. While offering such a deal to Paul would definitely be in Romney's interests, accepting a deal like this would be out of character for Paul, not to mention a disillusioning experience for the millions of enthusiastic young enthusiasts he has inspired. Ron Paul would not let them down for the sake of nepotism.

What I suspect is Ron Paul knows that Mitt Romney will not win this election without his endorsement. He also knows that the GOP establishment would never stand for him or Rand being a heart beat away from the presidency. However, the GOP establishment would be reluctantly willing to allow him to take the seat of Alexander Hamilton so that Ron Paul can begin to have his conversation with Ben Bernanke and a larger American audience about legal tender laws and competitive and parallel currencies.

This progressive would not be happy with that outcome not because I disagree with Paul on this issue. I do not disagree with him. I think competitive currency in the consumer market place is possible and indeed may be exactly what the dollar needs to stabilize over the long haul and maybe a first step for moving currency creation authority back to the congress where it belongs. 

I would not be satisfied with this because the MIC would be left in place The massive domestic stimulus that we need in green infrastructure and technology would be replaced by another military stimulus. Ron Paul may have to resign if this stimulus results in a war with Iran or the like, making Romney's plan complete. It is a risk Ron Paul is probably willing to take, and it is the only hope for the GOP to gain the White House in November.

I would rather Ron Paul take the risk that I have advocated for the last 13 months. I think most libertarians would prefer he take the Treasury track rather than the high speed rail we progressives want. It does not appear that Ron Paul will disappoint them unless... NEWS FLASH: Dennis Kucinich is available.
One may only hope....

Everybody note the date. ... 3-6-2012, Super Tuesday. Google and find someone else who made this prediction ahead of me. If I am right, I need a part time job making 100K writing for HP and the Daily Kos while making weekly appearances on MSNBC. Heck...I'll take Fox if anybody's offering.


  1. Evangelicals seem to be Paul's core weakness which he has been unable to overcome. The evangelicals that are ideologicaly close to Ron Paul haven't been vocal enough. Jim DeMint did his best, but without some heavy weight preachers and theologians Ron Paul was pretty much on his own. Former Schaeffer coworker John Whitehead wrote some articles on his blog, but who reads that except a political junky like me. The socalled Evangelical establishment (a contradictio in terminis if you ask me) has been going after Ron Paul from the start. These civil societarians, communitarians, compassionate conservatives and what not weren't going to stand by idly while Ron Paul attacked the foundations of the artifice that they have been constructing over the last two/three decades.

    1. Vincent,
      I think that as evangelicals mature and catch up with there cultural lag (I can say all this because I am one myself), they will become a part of the coalition I am trying to advocate for here. Ron Paul would probably be their best ally if they were a little bit more realistic. And besides he is one of them too.

  2. If Ron Paul were to become Treasury secretary he would resign rather than preside over a stimulus bill.

    1. I seriously doubt this will ever be offered to him. The above article was meant to point out how absurd even the best offer Paul could get out of the current delegate strategy.

  3. To the writer of this blog,

    An idea.

    What about putting our money where our mouths are?

    This just occurred to me while considering my pledge for the latest Ron Paul money bomb.
    I have supported the money bombs in the past in hopes there was a chance Paul could get the nomination. However, I am stuck as to if I should pledge for the latest one as it looks like he will not be given the nomination and I would rather him run third party now.

    Have you thought or talked with anyone about starting a Ron Paul 3rd Party Money Bomb?

    As I understand it, the money bombs are sometimes organized by supporters outside the campaign. My favorite was the "BLACK THIS OUT" Money Bomb because it had such a specific message to it.

    What if we started a type of money bomb in support of an Independent Ron Paul run?

    Thoughts right off the bat:

    ---It seems a bit scary because if it doesn't raise the types of amounts his others have it could be seen as a weakening of the Independent idea. However, I think we have nothing to loose and everything to gain at this point.

    ---What a message it would be if some real money was raised!

    --I see this idea to go right along with Paul's do it yourself, the people are the market attitude.

    --Now, the next question is does the money go into his Republican campaign bid?
    What if the Money Bomb was just "pledges" for IF and when he decides to run third party?

    Do you think this idea is good? Have you thought or discussed it before?


    For a while it seemed like he was really climbing, but it really looks like the campaign has stalled.

    I think if he embraced a true independent third party run it could be the most successful in history.

  4. It sounds like a good idea but I have no idea how to organize a money bomb. I imagine it would not get a lot of immediate support but when it becomes apparent that he still gains no ground after Santorum drops out, it might pick up steam. I would suggest publicizing the deadlines for third party and independent candidates: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/2012pdates.pdf
    If i am reading this document right, waiting until after the GOP primary means Ron Paul can run only as a write-in candidates in most states. i don't know if it is possible to get a candidate on a general election ballot without that candidate's consent but maybe funds raise can be used for securing signatures and meeting other filing requirements.
    I am afraid that Ron Paul intends to go all the way to the convention with enough delegates to influence the platform and get him a prime time speech. To me that is failure.
    Have you floated the idea on the Daily Paul?