I have always assumed that caucus states and small media states are going to be most productive for Paul but to simply think he can get enough delegates through this strategy to win the nomination is a bit far fetched.
If I were in charge of his campaign, I would have made it clear from the start, that Ron Paul will not be allowed to gain the nomination no matter how many delegates and votes he gets. The goal should be get as many of both as you can but do it with two things in mind: 1.) Build a bigger national base and reach out very intentionally to disenchanted progressives. 2.) aim for a plurality in votes and a brokered convention which exposes the GOP as the exclusive and warmongering club that it is, with the aim of garnering more progressives for a coalition third party run in the general election .
In short, the primary should be a warm up to a third party coalition bid. I still believe Ron Paul wins only in coalition with progressives and that it's best to build that coalition now or, even better, yesterday..
My strategy is obviously not the one in place. I will try to bite my tongue on this henceforth and pray that I am wrong and the Ron Paul campaign is right.